NotABigShortGuy

Letters

Weekly market letters

Macro context, sector rotation, and what I'm watching — published weekly on Substack.

Nasdaq Sinks 4.5% as AI Debt Worries Outweigh Falling Yields

Week ending Friday, October 16, 2026

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Stocks Near a Record as Long Yields Ease and Soft Tech Leaves a Gap

Week ending Friday, October 9, 2026

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Rate-Hike Bets Fade on Weak Jobs Data, but Long-Term Yields Keep Climbing

Week ending Friday, October 2, 2026

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Yields Climb Toward Multi-Decade Highs as Stocks Post First Green Week

First green week in three for stocks, but the 10-year held near multi-decade highs and oil told two stories.

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Fed Hikes Rates as Stocks Finish Flat and Yields Top 5%

Week ending Friday, September 18, 2026

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Stocks Rebound as Oil Retreats Ahead of Fed Meeting

Stocks bounced Friday as oil pulled back toward $100 and the 10-year stayed near 5% heading into the Sept. 16 Fed meeting.

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The Gates Are Closing

Credit is cracking where nobody's looking. The tape still won't flush. And oil remains the only honest market in the building.

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Everything Sold. Nothing Capitulated.

The trigger level broke, gold got liquidated, and the plumbing is flashing warnings the tape hasn't caught up to yet.

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The Crude Chokehold: Oil Backwardation, Gated Credit, and the Myth of a Resilient Tape

Why the real risk is no longer macro data, but a stressed oil market, trapped liquidity, and a Nasdaq level that may not hold much longer.

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The Great Tug-of-War: Why the Smart Money is Ignoring the Headlines and Watching the Plumbing

Everyone is watching the missiles. They should be watching the liquidity gates, the surging VIX, and the 6,700 level on the S&P 500.

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Dollar Dominance

The United States Greatest Strength and Most Dangerous Delusion

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Financial Markets in Flux: AI Disruption, Housing Shifts, and the Trump Effect

AI Disruption, Policy Shifts, and the Next Big Market Opportunities

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Does the Consumer Ever Slow Down—And Should They?

How Unrelenting Shoppers, Changing Workplace Rules, and Private-Equity Ambitions Are Reshaping 2025

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An Economy on Morphine

What Happens When Stimulus Becomes a Lifestyle?

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One of the Greatest Bull Market Years in History?

A 2024 Look-Back

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Markets, AI, and Tesla: Key Trends Shaping the Financial Landscape

From Tesla's meteoric rise to AI's transformative impact, uncover the forces driving markets and reshaping investment strategies.

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Coming soon

This is Market Snippets by NotABigShortGuy.

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These letters are a synthesis of my own analysis and that of professionals I follow closely. Not financial advice. Disclaimer.