The thinking
Analysis
What the market is doing, what I expect, and what I got wrong. Written before the outcome is known and never edited after.
- Narrowing it down: a regime filter built on SPY and QQQAfter a hot CPI print pushed QQQ below its 21 EMA, I worked out a simple frame for when to take risk at all, and when to buy pullbacks.
- Risk came off: reading a broad risk-off daySeveral trailing positions stopped out on the same day. What the cross-asset picture said about why, and what it would take to get constructive again.